Thoughts from colleagues in the trade: the anatomy of table selection and an inflated ego, by Robert "RUBINSWIN"
Robert "RUBINSWIN" analyzed his hand database and explained how table selection affects results.
Over a sample of 115,000 hands, he consistently made money at tables with recreational players with VPIP up to 46. Play against regulars over that period was around break-even before rake.
Over the next 20,000 hands, Robert lost $30,000. The downswing came from play against regulars and borderline fish. Meanwhile, at tables with more active amateurs (VPIP 47+) there were no significant losses – the maximum downswing was only 10-15 buy-ins.
Over a sample of 115,000 hands, he consistently made money at tables with recreational players with VPIP up to 46. Play against regulars over that period was around break-even before rake.
Over the next 20,000 hands, Robert lost $30,000. The downswing came from play against regulars and borderline fish. Meanwhile, at tables with more active amateurs (VPIP 47+) there were no significant losses – the maximum downswing was only 10-15 buy-ins.
"Guys, this isn't variance. We often put ourselves in these circumstances voluntarily. Often we can't admit to ourselves that our bankroll doesn't allow us to play this kind of poker, that we don't have enough skill to play with an edge against regs, that our psychology isn't developed enough to keep stewing in this endlessly. Sometimes you can just run good for a long time, it clouds your judgment, and sometimes it's hard to get out of that."According to Robert, such periods can't always be explained by variance. With high rake and poker room restrictions, it's important for a player to objectively assess their own game and choose tables carefully.
